The enemy’s question, and his nightmare: What if Nasrallah does it?
Khaled Barakat

Thursday, June 20, 2024

Originally published in the Lebanese newspaper Al-Akhbar. Khaled Barakat is a Palestinian writer and member of the Executive Committee of the Masar Badil, the Palestinian Alternative Revolutionary Path Movement.

Alongside the escalation of confrontations on the northern border of occupied Palestine, the exceptional success of the historic journey of the Hodhod drone over the enemy’s sensitive sites throughout Palestine, and the failure of the Zionist regime to achieve its goals in the Gaza Strip despite its genocidal rampage, the confusion of the Zionist entity and its generals also escalates alongside their questions about the direction of the war and their fate. Recently, the 2022 “Israeli” security report detailed “scenarios for an upcoming war with Hezbollah,” all of which have returned, while Hezbollah itself has become a looming nightmate threatening the existence of the Zionist entity, the projects of its allies and the regimes of normalization as well. All of the assessments of the enemy were that what happened at the dawn of October 7, 2023, could have only come from the Lebanese border and not from the “suppressed” Gaza Strip, as they imagined. This was a very logical conclusion, given the events near the Palestinian-Lebanese border before the great explosion of the Al-Aqsa Flood. Just as the enemy failed to anticipate the Flood, it also failed in its assessment of the Lebanese front, as Hezbollah entered the battlefront on October 8, 2023.

The steps taken by the Lebanese Resistance were precise, strategic decisions of a special kind. This is confirmed by the results that we have seen, as the Lebanese Resistance has burdened the Zionist regime, its army and its settlers, supported the Palestinian Resistance, deprived the enemy and its allies of many initiatives and tactics, and formed a shield and a front to protect Lebanon. In addition, it paved the way for the gradual entry of the forces of the camp of Resistance into the battle. It moved the slogan of unity of the fronts of resistance from the political sphere to the fields of direct confrontation.

The enemy is well-aware of what it means to enter into a comprehensive confrontation with Hezbollah and the extent of the human, material, economic and military losses that will befall it. All of the “fatal weaknesses have been exposed, and Nasrallah will not hesitate to strike them harshly,” the Zionists say. This has also become a U.S., Israeli and European conviction. This is not a secret in any case, as Sayyed Nasrallah is keen to remind the Zionists where their weak points lie, even if he sometimes suffices with the simple phrase: Gush Dan (the largest conurbation and metropolitan area in the Zionist entity).

Hezbollah’s capacity to direct concentrated missile strikes on the electricity sector, water desalination plants, the enemy’s ports (especially the port of Haifa), military and civil airports, gas platforms, ammonia and chemical storage sites and other strategic facilities would not be similar to the effects of such strikes in any other country. The Zionist entity is an “electricity island,” and its society depends on energy in all aspects of its facilities, and it does not have a strategic depth in the region. It will be very difficult for the Zionist entity to confront Hezbollah without such geographical depth and in the absence of quick and ready alternatives to these essential services. What has always been seen as “Israel’s advantage” — its high level of military and civilian technology — has become a serious weakness.

The reality has changed: the Hezbollah that fought in July 2006 is no longer the same party in 2024, in terms of its capabilities, plans, experience and weapons. The enemy being defeated in Gaza and isolated internationally is also not the same. We must also compare the spirit of the popular cradle of the resistance, compared to the state of division and uncertainty in the enemy society.

Since 2006, Hezbollah has not stopped fighting and preparing, adding to its arsenal at least 10 years of battlefield experience in multiple arenas, to which it went voluntarily or under the duress of urgency, and its forces fought battles in the harshest valleys, deserts and mountains, in difficult and challenging circumstances.

The research centers of the “Israeli” enemy say that Hezbollah has 150,000 missiles and precision missiles, 65,000 missiles with a range of up to 80 kilometers, 5,000 missiles with a range of 80 to 200 kilometers, 5,000 with a range of 200 kilometers or more, 2,500 drones, hundreds of advanced weapons, and more, and they conclude by saying: Hezbollah’s firepower is to launch 4,000 missiles during a normal day of fighting!

The Zionist regime was keen to study what happened in Ukraine after the Russian forces used Iranian-made attack drones, and saw what happened to the electricity and energy sector there as a result. In the Ukrainian case, Europe is always present to provide geographical depth and a connection to supply and energy networks, but the Zionist entity will not find anything like this level of support in its surroundings. No party will be able to save “Israel.”

According to the Wall Street Journal, the Zionist enemy had already decided to launch a massive attack on Lebanon on October 11, 2023, and an urgent message arrived at the White House, in which Netanyahu asked for the green light to begin an attack aimed at “deterring Hezbollah forces that are preparing to storm the border.” Whether these reports published by the Wall Street Journal are true or not, the war on Lebanon — as is well-known — will not take place without U.S. approval. However, the reported response came quickly: rejection of the “Israeli” plan, considering it a risk with uncalculated and severe consequences.

Despite what can be said about the dregs of Lebanese politics, the internal front, despite its faults, remains more cohesive than the collapsing enemy front, which Netanyahu is working to stitch with needle and thread. It is no longer a secret to anyone how the enemy forces, especially the so-called “elite units” are experiencing their worst combat and morale conditions after being exhausted by the resistance in the Gaza Strip over the past nine months.

It is not only the deterrent power of the enemy that has eroded, but also its ability to see clearly and draw up plans. The war on Lebanon, if it occurs, will not save the Zionist entity’s economy; it will not break its isolation or facilitate its “integration” into the region, yet it may well turn into a long war of attrition in favor of the army of the Lebanese resistance, described by most military experts as the strongest irregular army in the world.

Finally, the enemy leaders did not forget the threat made by Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah in February 2011 when he addressed the resistance fighters in Lebanon by saying: “Be prepared for a day, if war will be imposed on Lebanon, and the leadership of the resistance may ask you to secure the Galilee, meaning, in other words: Liberate the Galilee.” These very, very precise phrases are resounding in the heads of the enemy leaders again, and their echoes are heard in Washington, Paris, Berlin, London, and elsewhere, and their response is one question only: What if Nasrallah does it?

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